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經濟系

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    title: On the complexity of the El Farol Bar Game: A sensitivity analysis abstract: In this paper, we carry out a sensitivity analysis for an agentbased model of the use of public resources as manifested by the El Farol Bar problem. An early study using the same model has shown that a good-society equilibrium, characterized by both economic efficiency and economic equality, can be achieved probabilistically by a von Neumann network, and can be achieved surely with the presence of some agents having social preferences, such as the inequity-averse preference or the 'keeping-up-with-the-Joneses' preference. In this study, we examine this fundamental result by exploring the inherent complexity of the model; specifically, we address the effect of the three key parameters related to size, namely, the network size, the neighborhood size, and the memory size. We find that social preferences still play an important role over all the sizes considered. Nonetheless, it is also found that when network size becomes large, the parameter, the bar capacity (the attendance threshold), may also play a determining role.

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    title: On the complexity of the El Farol Bar game: a sensitivity analysis abstract: In this paper, we carry out a sensitivity analysis for an agent-based model of the use of public resources as manifested by the El Farol Bar problem. An early study using the same model has shown that a good-society equilibrium, characterized by both economic efficiency and economic equality, can be achieved probabilistically by a von Neumann network, and can be achieved surely with the presence of some agents having social preferences, such as the inequity-averse preference or the ‘keeping-up-with-the-Joneses’ preference. In this study, we examine this fundamental result by exploring the inherent complexity of the model; specifically, we address the effect of the three key parameters related to size, namely, the network size, the neighborhood size, and the memory size. We find that social preferences still play an important role over all the sizes considered. Nonetheless, it is also found that when network size becomes large, the parameter, the bar capacity (the attendance threshold), may also play a determining role.

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    title: Vertical separation versus vertical integration in an endogenously growing economy abstract: This paper sets up an endogenous growth model with a learning-by-doing externality in capital accumulation under both vertical separation and vertical integration structures. Some major findings emerge from our analysis. First, an increase in monopoly power has a detrimental effect on the balanced growth rate. Second, a vertical integration structure leads to a more balanced economic growth rate than a vertical separation structure. Third, the first-best subsidy rates on labor income and capital income under a vertical separation regime are higher than those under a vertical integration regime. Finally, with the additional externality from productive government spending, the government may levy positive taxes on both labor income and capital income if the extent of the productive public spending externality is sufficiently high.

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    title: A note on environment-dependent time preferences abstract: In this paper we investigate the growth effect of environmental taxes when time preference is endogenously determined by environmental quality. We find that if people become more patient because of a cleaner environment, raising the environmental tax may reduce pollution and stimulate growth. Moreover, the Pigouvian principle may be inefficient in the presence of endogenous time preference.

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    title: 總體審慎政策-流動性覆蓋比率-之動態隨機一般均衡分析 authors: 吳奕信; Wu, Yi-Xin
    abstract: 本文的研究目的為,在一個包含銀行部門的動態隨機一般均衡模型的架構中,探討流動性覆蓋比率限制在利率的信用管道中所扮演的角色以及其對政體經濟的影響為何。在銀行的資產配置決策內生的情形下,加入流動性覆蓋比率的限制,透過放款的勞動成本與抵押品價值來刻畫金融摩擦;本文發現當經濟體系遭受生產與放款的外生衝擊時,流動性覆蓋比率的限制會增強政策利率的信用管道效果,並且相較於無流動性覆蓋比率限制之模型而言,具流動性覆蓋比率限制的模型,其銀行資產配置的變動幅度與金融摩擦的程度皆較大。
    description: 碩士

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    title: 分紅費用化對公司創新表現的影響-以科技業為例 authors: 黃冠雯
    abstract: 在過去,我們認為有形資產是公司最重要的資產,然而到了現今知識密集產業當道的時代,取而代之的是無形資產:專利,品牌,商業秘密等成為決定公司存亡與進步與否的關鍵,因此研究無形資產的價值成為主流之一。本研究第一部份使用因素分析法捕捉專利四大指標:前引證數、後引證數、專利家族數與請求項個數共同影響專利的因素,我們稱之為「專利品質」,並用此方法來建構台灣上市上櫃電子業公司於2003年至2012年各公司各年度的創新力指標。 本研究第二部分探討員工薪酬對於公司創新力的影響,並且以2008年員工分紅費用化政策作為一工具變數,試看該政策對於公司研發創新的影響。本研究結果顯示,分紅費用化政策對於公司研發創新並無顯著影響。整體來看,費用化後高、低股價公司間的薪酬差距縮小,然而創新研發能力差距卻擴大;若分產業來看,台灣電子業發展有往技術密集產業之高股價公司集中的現象,例如:半導體業、電腦及週邊設備業、通信網路業、其他電子業在費用化後研發產出增加最多,即使該產業亦為費用化後總薪酬下降最多之產業。
    description: 碩士

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    title: 代理模型中的策略性利他行為 authors: 蔡一豪; Tsai, Yi Hao
    abstract: Many recent researches examine the social networks between directors and CEO and show their negative impacts on corporate governance (see Barnea and Guedj, 2007; Gaspar and Massa, 2007). If, this negative relation between social connection and corporate governance is true, we would expect that family firms where the CEOs and directors are family members should have the worst governance and the worst performance. This certainly is not the case. So how exactly the social network between board members and CEO can influence corporate governance and the firm performance? Our paper provides the first theoretical discussion on this effect. In particular, our paper considers three scenarios: complete information where the prosocial inclinations are known for each other, incomplete information where the shareholders'.prosocial inclination (we denote as α ) is privately known for themselves, and incomplete information where the manager's .prosocial inclination (we denote as β ) is privately known for himself.
    description: 碩士

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    title: The influence of Internet on politics: the impact of Facebook and the Internet penetration on elections in Taiwan abstract: Previous research on elections indicates that the rise of social media has had a positive impact on political participation and political interest, resulting in more voters going to the polls. However, there has been no research on the impact that social media have on bringing about a change in government. This research investigates the impact that the Internet and the Chinese version of Facebook have had on election results in Taiwan from 2001 to 2016. The findings indicate that after the Chinese version of Facebook appeared in 2008, the higher the penetration rate of the Internet in the Taiwan region, the more likely that political power will change hands and the ruling party will lose an election.

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  • 08/30/17--21:21: 貨幣同盟的三個議題
  • title: 貨幣同盟的三個議題 authors: 劉世夫; Liu, Shih Fu
    abstract: 自從2008年全球經濟衰退以來,歐元區經濟顯著的衰退,特別是歐元區各成員國的經濟表現有明顯的差異。在本文中,我們試就成員國「貿易開放程度」和「財政基本面」這兩個重要特徵,來詮釋歐元區經濟穩定這個議題。在第二章中,我們在貿易開放程度不同的國家下,比較貨幣同盟制度與浮動匯率制度對於負向衝擊產生的影響。我們發現當貨幣當局愈重視產出穩定時,相較於浮動匯率制度,貨幣同盟制度將使產出下降的更多。在第三章中,我們將短期私人債券及長期政府債券引入貨幣同盟的兩國DSGE模型。我們推斷,歐洲央行(ECB)的公共部門債券購買計劃(PSPP),對於不同財政狀況的成員國,有著不對稱的總體經濟影響。在第四章中,我們建立貨幣同盟經濟的最適貨幣政策模型。我們發現成員國間經濟差異,將影響貨幣同盟的整體福利水準。相較於傳統零利率最適貨幣政策文獻,本研究的結果顯示不論是權衡或承諾制度,增加公共部門債券購買將緩和貨幣同盟的經濟波動。
    description: 博士

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    title: 台灣綠色稅制改革對所得重分配效果之影響 authors: 詹偉志; Chan, Wei-Chih
    abstract: 我國倡議綠色稅制改革已歷三十餘年,迄今仍未能實施綠色稅制改革。本研究之目的在於探討台灣實施綠色稅制改革對於所得分配之影響效果,同時觀察我國是否存在實施綠色稅制改革之兩大障礙:國際競爭力及所得分配問題。 首先,本研究在「稅收中立」原則下,設計我國可行之綠色稅制改革,包括徵稅與支出兩方面。在徵收面,參考蕭代基等(2009)及行政院版最終決議之單位稅額NT$ 750/tCO2e,估計能源及環境稅稅收;在支出面有兩項方案,(一)參考美國氣候領導力委員會(Climate Leadership Council, 2017),將稅收全數均分於全民;(二)參考蕭代基等(2009),將稅收用於補貼低收入戶、大眾運輸及改善財政收支。其次,應用「投入產出模型」於民國100年行政院主計總處之「產業關聯表」與民國104年「家庭收支調查報告」,估計實施綠色稅制改革對生產者與消費者之價格波動、所得分配及二氧化碳減量等效果。 實證結果顯示,本研究設計之兩項綠色稅制改革方案皆能在「稅收中立」原則下,改善所得分配不均問題及減少二氧化碳排放量,且生產者與消費者價格上漲幅度不大,對國際競爭力之影響小。可同時達到環境保護、經濟效率、社會公平之目標,也可以達到改善財政收支、降低累積未償債餘額的財政永續效果。
    description: 碩士

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    title: China's Gains from WTO Accession: Imports vs Exports abstract: We examine the gains from Chinese accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). We provide a new quantitative welfare measure by dividing the manufacturing sector into import and export sub-sectors. We then evaluate how the increased openness caused by China's accession to the WTO effects the importing and exporting sectors. We find surprisingly that the gains to the import sector are larger than the gains to the export sector. Moreover, the size and the dynamic pattern of such gains are different across sectors. Overall, sectors with larger intermediate input shares from import-competing industries and with domestic demands less sensitive to changes in trade costs have higher welfare gains from trade liberalization.

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    title: 信任,個人所得與國家財富 authors: 吳宗暉; Wu, Zonghui
    abstract: 本文將信任作為新的變數,加入到消費者最優問題當中;分別基於RBC模型和AK模型的框架,推导了信任對於個人以及社會經濟表現的影響.兩個模型的數學解都預測信任會正向影響社會的產出水平,但在信任是否影響經濟的成長速度這一命題上得出了不同的結論.利用跨國數據和中國省級數據進行實證研究,我們發現信任應當有收入效果,但沒有成長效果;特別的,我們還發現信任和人力資本之間具有相互促進的內在關係.在個人收入層面, 我們利用中國的調查資料, 也同時驗證了信任對於個人所得的正向效果.
    description: 碩士

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    title: Computational behavioral economics

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  • 09/15/17--01:01: Smart societies
  • title: Smart societies

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    title: Looking for regional convergence: evidence from the italian case with multivariate adaptive regression splines abstract: This paper examines the role of data mining analysis in explaining the Italian regional dualism with the aim of suggesting economic policies to fill the existing socio-economic gaps. We analyze the 2004–2014 period exploiting the capacity of MARS model in finding relationships among data. In Italy, the presence of a North-South divide is well-known for decades and present for several social and economic aspects. Recent studies prove that strong differences exist also in the regional human capital. Thus, we search for the causes of the local differences, also considering the entrepreneurial vitality and the international trade leverage. Among several variables, MARS is useful in showing the actual determinants on which to intervene. This is possible by comparing regions grouped homogeneously into clusters using recent data. MARS results are used for policy suggestions with the aim of filling the income gap.

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    title: Information aggregation in big data: Wisdom of crowds or stupidity of herds abstract: We are entering an age of big data in which our everyday lives depend on tremendous amounts of data and at the same time generate new data. However, the effect of this information convenience on the quality of our decision-making is still not clear. On the one hand, more information is expected to help people make better decisions by serving as the “wisdom of crowds”. On the other hand, imitation among interconnected agents may lead to the “stupidity of herds” with the result that most people will make worse choices. Using agent-based modeling, we explore the information aggregation behaviors of an interconnected population and study how the connectedness among agents influences the checks and balances between the “wisdom of crowds” and the “stupidity of herds”, as well as the decision quality of the agents. We find that in a population of interconnected agents with limited fact-checking capacity, a quasi-equilibrium with a small portion of agents making decisions based on fact checking and a large portion of agents following the majority can be achieved in the process of reinforcement learning. The effects of agents’ fact-checking capacity and search scope on herding behavior, decision quality, and the possibility of systemic failure are also investigated. It is interesting to find that the decision accuracy first increases and then decreases as the agents’ search scope goes up if the agents have a limited fact-checking capacity. This finding implies that a partially connected rather than a fully connected network is preferred from the viewpoint of information aggregation efficiency.

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  • 09/18/17--00:40: Preface
  • title: Preface

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    title: A data mining analysis of the Chinese inland-coastal inequality abstract: As in many countries, even in China the socio-economic changes have affected income inequality in recent decades. The various economic opportunities have led to different paths of development causing severe disparities in GDP per capita level. In addition to the well-known Chinese rural/urban inequality, in this work we study the inland/coastal differences. There are many known causes of inequality, but we aim to discover the actual determinants of the local GDP and, therefore, of income in a period that includes the international economic crisis started in 2007. With this aim, we use different variables to obtain clusters of the Chinese provinces in the period 2004–2015 and, subsequently, we investigate the determinants of income with a multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). There is an extensive economic literature on the Chinese case: MARS allows us to integrate this literature enabling us to find which GDP determinants are the most relevant in the certain areas of China.

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    title: 自由滙率制度下的政策效果-Chen與Miles模型的結合 authors: 王錦樹
    abstract: 傳統的純粹浮動滙率制度與純粹固定滙率制度的爭論中,支持浮動滙率制度的學者認為,浮動滙率可以隔絕外來的影響,因此不會使本國財金政策的效果因傳遞到國外而減低。但這是假設在本國人民不持有外國通貨的情況下所得到的結論。Chen放鬆此一假設,得到本國人民可以持有他國通貨--即通貨可以替代的情況下,浮動滙率制度也無法隔絕外來的影響,此時政策效果介於純粹浮動滙率制度與純粹固定滙率制度之間。但是Chen將其模型中的流動性勞務函數設定為Cobb-Douglas的型式,也就是將通貨之間的替代彈性限定為一,Miles認為如果政策效果與通貨替代彈性息息相關,則限定替代彈性為一,就不切實際,所以他設立- C. E. S.型式的流動性勞務函數,證明替代彈性顯著異於一。本文以Chen的模型為基礎,結合了 Miles 的C. E. S.型式的流動性勞務函數,探討通貨之間的替代彈性為不同正數時的財金政策效果。
    description: 國立政治大學

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    title: 最適貨幣量與外滙政策之探討 authors: 白裕莊
    abstract: 自從布列登森林協定(Bretton Woods Agreements)瓦解後,國際貨幣制度由固定滙率--透過黃金物價 流出入機能(price-specie flow mechanism )的賽局規則(rule of the game) 即能自動調節貿易收支的制度--走向漫無秩序的浮動滙率制度。 傳統的浮動滙率支持者認為浮動滙率制度能夠隔絕國外的政策干擾因素,因此,最適的政策行為是彷彿處於一個封閉經濟之中,可以忽略國外的政策行為;然而,新近的文獻否定了浮動滙率制度的隔絕力量。本文除了表現浮動滙率下國際干擾傳遞來自經濟社會存在的普遍現象--名目工資的僵固性--之本質外,並進一步探討下列主題: 1、浮動滙率制度下的rule of the game-隱含固定或權衡性貨幣供給去則的抉擇,以及此rule未被遵循時政策目標的取捨。 2、最適貨幣量--隱含貨幣當局在攷慮外國可能政策反應下應付國內外名目與實質干擾的方向與程度。 3、最適外滙政策--外滙市場干須的程度,以及其所帶來的對貨幣當局影響國內經濟能力之不利因素。
    description: 國立政治大學

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