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經濟系

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    title: 內生化市場結構與補貼政策 authors: 林鈺凱; Lin, Yu-Kai
    abstract: 本文建構了在內生化市場結構下的第二代R&D內生成長模型,並在此架構下探討四種不同補貼—最終財生產補貼、中間財生產補貼、內部研發補貼和進入補貼對經濟增長和內生市場結構的影響。 發現當短期廠商數目固定時,最終產品生產補貼、中間產品生產補貼及內部研發補貼與過去的文獻相同,都會增加經濟增長率;但短期廠商數目固定時,研發部門的進入之價格補貼不會影響經濟增長。而當市場結構內生調整,也就是長期下,最終財生產補貼和中間產品生產補貼將使得廠商進入市場,隨著每家廠商的市場規模降低的負向效果將抵消短期的正向效果,因此對長期經濟增長率沒有效果。另一方面,當市場結構內生調整時,內部研發補貼減少了廠商數目但增加了經濟增長率,而研發部門的進入價格補貼擴大了廠商數目卻降低了經濟增長率。因此,內部研發補貼可能是比其他補貼更好的政策工具,因為它可以刺激長期經濟增長率。
    description: 碩士

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    title: 台灣工作風險與薪資關係之追蹤資料分析研究 authors: 蘭建豪; Lan, Chien-Hao
    abstract: 國內外政府及學者為衡量降低死亡風險之效益,通常使用特徵工資模型估計薪資的風險彈性,並且計算一個統計生命的價值(value of a statistical life,VSL),然而此專有名詞容易被錯誤解讀,因此本研究依照Cameron(2010)的方法改為計算風險變動百萬分之一的願付價值(the willingness to pay for a micro-risk reduction,)。 過去補償性工資差異的研究常使用橫斷面資料,並假設不存在內生性問題,直接以普通最小平方法來分析,然而Garen(1988)認為風險是一個內生變數,因此他改用兩階段最小平方法處理風險之內生性問題。 本研究使用的勞工特徵與風險特徵的資料,分別來自中央研究院人文社會科學研究中心華人家庭動態資料庫、勞工保險局勞工職業災害保險資料庫,華人家庭動態資料庫是1999年至2014年的追蹤資料。 我們將全體就業者分成技藝有關人員、管理與專業人員等二類職業別,並用追蹤資料固定效果模型進行迴歸分析,可以處理部分內生性問題,其全體就業者、技藝有關人員、管理與專業人員薪資的風險彈性分別為0.0338、0.0567、0.0220,前兩者統計上顯著,代表其他情況不變下,行業風險越高工資也越高,因此存在補償性工資差異,然而管理與專業人員面對的工作風險較低,此職業別不會和雇主協議風險特徵的報酬,雇主在工作特徵中也不會放入風險特徵,所以管理與專業人員不存在補償性工資差異。 最後,由加入環境特徵變數的迴歸估計結果,發現受僱者偏好較舒適的氣溫與較清淨的空氣,所以一月氣溫較高的地區有較多的勞動供給與較低的薪資,另一方面,七月氣溫越高的地區有較低的勞動供給與較高的工資,同樣的,懸浮微粒濃度較高的地區須用較高的薪水來吸引員工來此地就業。此結果符合Roback(1982)之理論預期與實證結果。
    description: 碩士

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    title: 導向技術改變的三個議題 authors: 黃偉奇; Huang, Wei-Chi
    abstract: 由於近期有關工資不均度的研究在文獻上引發熱烈的討論,本論文有系統的利用導向的技術改變模型(directed technical change)為基礎,試圖檢視影響經濟體系工資不均度變化的原因。在第二章,基於既有文獻鮮少考量貨幣政策對於工資不均度的影響,因此我們將兩部門R&D投資需要現金付現的特色引入導向的技術改變模型,並發現寬鬆的貨幣政策將降低經濟成長率並有助於改善工資不均度。第三章我們則是建立一個具有工會特色的導向的技術改變模型,我們發現工會談判力提高對於工資不均度的影響取決於兩個部分。首先,是工會的型態為就業面向(employment-oriented)或工資面向(wage-oriented)。其次,若工會談判力提高使得經濟體系發生技能偏向的技術改變(skill-biased technical change),此時須視技能偏向的技術改變效果與相對勞動供給的效果相對大小而定。第四章我們則是建立一個兩國的導向的技術改變模型,其中一國為已開發國家,一國為開發中國家。為了能捕捉實證發現近年來開發中國家與已開發國家工資不均度均惡化的狀況,我們試圖從開發中國家的智慧財產權保護政策的角度出發,並發現開發中國家的智慧財產權保護政策有可能導致經濟體系發生技能偏向的技術改變,進而造成兩國的工資不均度皆惡化。
    description: 博士

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    title: Endogenous Debt-Equity Ratio and Balance-Sheet Channel: Implications for Growth and Welfare abstract: This paper endogenizes the debt‐equity ratio and embodies financial leverage in a cash‐in‐advance model of endogenous growth. Our analysis finds that the debt‐equity ratio is positively related to the balanced‐growth rate, since it serves as a ‘financial accelerator’ to stimulate investment projects. Compared to previous studies, this positive relationship gives rise to an additional balance‐sheet effect, which substantially affects the macroeconomic consequences of monetary and taxation policies. Due to the existence of the balance‐sheet effect, we also find that the Friedman rule is not necessarily optimal.

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    title: 台灣證券商之效率及生產力分析-Hicks-Moorsteen生產力指數之應用 authors: 陳鈞揚; Chen, Jyun-Yang
    abstract: 本研究使用 2012 年至 2016 年,台灣共 42 家綜合券商資料,進行效率及生產 力分析。主要應用 Hicks-Moorsteen 總要素生產力(total factor productivity, TFP) 指數及其拆解項,針對四個部分的效率及生產力進行研究,分別為:台灣整體證券 業、個別券商比較、外生變數影響,最後再與目前文獻上較多人使用的 Malmquist TFP 指數進行統計檢定,觀察其有無顯著差異。 實證結果顯示台灣證券商市場近幾年的生產力成長是緩慢的,生產力效率低 落的關係減緩了整個台灣證券商產業的生產力成長,在台灣整體證券業及個別券 商比較的實證都歸納出改善規模效率的重要性。外生變數影響的實證則發現:外商 券商與否對提升效率有正向關係的顯著性;業務集中雖然對商品組合效率有正向 影響,卻對生產力有負向影響;增加資本額對效率及生產力有負向關係;提高市佔 率雖然對生產力有正向影響,不過卻對規模效率有負向影響。最後一個部分的實證 則顯示此樣本在 Malmquist TFP 指數與 Hicks-Moorsteen TFP 指數沒有統計上顯著 的差異,然而若只觀察其進退步的差異,還是有一定的比例。
    description: 碩士

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    title: 大數據分析在社群網站的應用—以影響PS4銷售量因素為例 authors: 蔡仲銘
    abstract: 隨著網路與行動裝置的蓬勃發展,人們使用社群網站的比例快速增加,廠商也開始重視社群網路裡的廣告活動與粉絲經營。研究指出,消費者在購買商品前後會到社群網站中搜尋相關評價與發表心得的比例也逐漸上升。本研究主要以電玩遊戲主機PlayStation 4(ps4)為例,利用R軟體蒐集推特(Twitter)上的北美地區推文(tweets)大數據資料與Google Trend搜尋熱度資料進行統計分析,建立支援向量迴歸模型(SVR)進行商品銷售量的預測並與其他模型比較。本研究發現,社群網站上的每周推文數、正面情感推文占總推文數的比例以及Google Trend的搜尋熱度指標越高會對商品的銷售量有正面影響,而文章包含影音圖片等外部url連結的廣告效果會比純文字來的更好。此外,當推特上的推文顯示消費者處於愛達(AIDA)模式中表現期的推文比例越高,也與商品的銷售量有正相關。另外,透過字詞分析也發現,遊戲廠商經常會舉辦抽獎活動或促銷活動作為增加官方推特的互動率、培養粉絲以及增加廣告文章的曝光率的手段。遊戲產業在社群網站上的廣告策略應以影音圖片為主、文字為輔,並以擴散情報及玩家間的正面討論為首要目標。
    description: 碩士

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    title: Survival of Patients With Vancomycin-Resistant Enterococcus faecium Bacteremia Treated With Conventional or High Doses of Daptomycin or Linezolid Is Associated With the Rate of Bacterial Clearance abstract: OBJECTIVES: Vancomycin-resistant enterococci are important pathogens for healthcare-associated infections. Although linezolid is bacteriostatic and daptomycin is rapidly bactericidal against vancomycin-resistant enterococci in vitro, it is not clear whether they differ in their effect on bacterial clearance in patients with vancomycin-resistant enterococci bloodstream infections. DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING: Two university hospitals and research laboratory. PATIENTS: Patients with vancomycin-resistant enterococci bloodstream infection proven by blood cultures were prospectively enrolled from January 2010 to July 2015. INTERVENTIONS: Sequential blood samples were collected. Real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction was used to monitor bacterial loads. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: One hundred eight patients with vancomycin-resistant enterococci bloodstream infection were enrolled. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction assays were performed on 465 blood isolates. We found this method to be closely correlated with colony-forming units and more sensitive than culture. Sixty-three patients (58.3%) received "conventional dose" daptomycin (6-9 mg/kg), 15 (13.9%) received high-dose daptomycin (≥ 9 mg/kg), and 30 (27.8%) were treated with linezolid (600 mg every 12 hr) as sole agents. The initial mean bacterial load was 1.03 log10 copies/mL and unrelated to survival. Survivors had a more rapid early bacterial clearance than nonsurvivors (Δ log10 copies/mL/d; -0.16 vs 0.31; p = 0.02). Multivariable logistic regression showed that a slower early bacterial clearance independently predicted increased mortality (odds ratio, 3.21; 95% CI, 1.03-10.02; p = 0.045). Conventional dose daptomycin was associated with a significantly slower rate of bacterial clearance than high-dose daptomycin (Δ log10 copies/mL/d; -0.04 vs -0.41; p

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    title: A heterogeneous artificial stock market model can benefit people against another financial crisis abstract: This paper presents results of an artificial stock market and tries to make it more consistent with the statistical features of real stock data. Based on the SFI-ASM, a novel model is proposed to make agents more close to the real world. Agents are divided into four kinds in terms of different learning speeds, strategy-sizes, utility functions, and level of intelligence; and a crucial parameter has been found to ensure system stability. So, some parameters are appended to make the model which contains zero-intelligent and less-intelligent agents run steadily. Moreover, considering real stock markets change violently due to the financial crisis; the real stock markets are divided into two segments, before the financial crisis and after it. The optimal modified model before the financial crisis fails to replicate the statistical features of the real market after the financial crisis. Then, the optimal model after the financial crisis is shown. The experiments indicate that the optimal model after the financial crisis is able to replicate several of real market phenomena, including the first-order autocorrelation, kurtosis, standard deviation of yield series and first-order autocorrelation of yield square. We point out that there is a structural change in stock markets after the financial crisis, which can benefit people forecast the financial crisis.

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    title: 個人背景與種族對創業選擇行為之影響: 以不同人力資本需求的產業為例 authors: 蔡堯力; Tsai, Tao-Li
    abstract: 本文以人力資本需求的 產業特性研究種族 和個人背景 對創業的影響。分析上利用 The Current Population Survey(CPS)個人層級的資料 ,以 Multino-mial Logistic Regression進行回歸分析。實證結果顯示 美國亞裔平均而言相較 於非裔、拉丁和白人 創業 的機率更高,並且證實了工作經驗價值和工作任務抽象程度對於創業啟發的重要性。
    description: 碩士

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    title: Reply to "Modeling Managerial Altruism, CSR, and Donations: A Comment" abstract: We point out that the main concern of this comment is on the assumptions about “managerial compensation” and “who should make the donation decision for the firm”.

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    title: An Evaluation of Optimal Unemployment Insurance Using Two Natural Experiments

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    title: Returns to scale, productive efficiency, and optimal firm size evidence from Taiwan's firm data abstract: By using Taiwan's census firm data, this paper estimates and tests the variable returns to scale hypothesis for aggregate manufacturing and two-digit industries. An efficiency measure is constructed to further examine the size-efficiency relations among two-digit industries. Analysis indicates that increasing returns exist at the aggregate manufacturing level and its magnitude is higher for exporting firms than for nonexporting firms. Moreover, trade is beneficial only for small firms. However, the property of increasing returns diminishes for most of the industries at the two-digit level, particularly for the exporting firms. This sharp comparison between aggregate and two-digit level results suggests that trade is conducive to productivity, and provides an indication of the specific form of technology spillovers among firms and across industries. Further investigation of the relationship between productive efficiency and firm size renders the result that optimal firm size is small for exporting firms in most industries, particularly in the most export-oriented ones. The technology spillover effect among firms and across industries is likely the reason for being small and efficient. Our results also indicate that an industry-wide spillover effect across firms within the same industry is roughly one-sixth of the firm-specific export-induced learning effect. Findings in this study provide valuable insight into Taiwan's economic development and also provide a development strategy for developing countries to follow.

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    title: Foreign direct investment, R&D and spillover efficiency: Evidence from Taiwan's manufacturing firms abstract: Using Taiwanese firm-level data, we confirm that foreign direct investment and R&D have a positive impact, or spillover effect on productivity. Furthermore, labour quality firm size, marker structure, and export orientation all affect a firm's productivity Applying Heckman's [1976] two-stage estimation method, we find that firms self-select into R&D or non-R&D groups. After correcting for this selection bias, we find that foreign direct investment, local technology purchase, and outward foreign investment are substitutes to R&D activity. These results are mainly due to the significant effect of industry-wide technology spillovers. The major policy implications derived from this study are that governments in developing countries may first wish to adopt policies encouraging foreign direct investment to foster technology transfer and industry-wide knowledge spillovers in the short run. However; once the country's technological capability is established it appears critical to switch towards policies that provide a preferred environment to stimulate R&D investment (for example, infrastructure improvement and protection of intellectual property rights) to allow for sustainable economic growth.

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    title: Competitiveness of international tourism in Taiwan: US versus Japanese visitors abstract: This paper intends to identify the factors determining the relative competitiveness of Taiwan's international tourism among a group of seven East Asian countries. Using data on visitors from the USA and Japan, the major message which emerged from this study is that there are sharp differences between factors affecting US visitors and Japanese visitors. Specifically, we found: (1) the decline of Taiwan's market share in Japan has been mainly due to appreciation of NT dollars and changing preferences, whereas they are not crucial factors in the US market; (2) qualitative supply-side factors indeed could have decisive influences on the market share. However, their effect is again origin-dependent. The open-door policy of China is the only important determinant of Taiwan's competitiveness in the US market, while it has no impact on the Japanese visitors.

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    title: Book Review: Elements of information theory - Cover,TM, Thomas,JA

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    title: MONEY, PRICES, AND CAUSALITY - THE CHINESE HYPERINFLATION, 1946-1949, REEXAMINED abstract: Expanding on recent work by Tang and Hu (1983), this paper tests for the direction of causality between the money supply and inflation in the three currency areas of China during the hyperinflation of 1946 to 1949. As in the previous study, we find a feedback relationship between money and prices for the mainland China currency area. However, this relationship seems to be statistically significant only after including the post-reform period (August 1948 to May 1949) in the causality tests. For Taiwan and Manchuria, we find a strong one-way causality from inflation to money. These results confirm the widespread belief among economic historians that the Chinese hyperinflation was basically caused by the Nationalist governments' desperate attempts to finance its mounting war expenditures by printing money.

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    title: TAXATION OF FOREIGN-CAPITAL AND THE OPTIMUM TARIFF abstract: Given that the host country has the monopoly power in the exportable market, this paper has been concerned with the optimum tariffs in a specific model where the internationally mobile capital is specific to the import-competing sector. The distinctive feature of this paper is approaching the optimal trade policies as an illustration of the theory of second-best. The second-best tariff rate depends on the given rate of tax on foreign capital yields. When the tax on foreign investment is greater (smaller) than the optimum rate, a tariff greater (smaller) than the traditional formula is required to correct the distortion and restore the equilibrium.

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    title: Besides Depression, Number of Physiological Diseases is More Important than Physical Function on Mental Health of Elderly Adults in Taiwan abstract: This study contrasted the relative importance between the number of physiological diseases and activities of daily living (ADLs) to the mental health of elderly adults after controlling for mini-mental state exam (MMSE) scores and depression. Participants were 1342 elderly people with a mean age of 73.22 years and living in three communities in southern Taiwan. Age, gender, years of education duration, marital status, and MMSE and hamilton depression rating scale (HAMD) scores were control variables. The ability of the ADLs scale scores and number of physiological diseases to predict mental health, as measured by the 12-item Chinese health questionnaire, was compared using hierarchical regression analyses. The final hierarchical model indicated that only HAMD and the number of physiological diseases scores were significant and that the former was much more predictive than the latter. The results imply that the number of physiological diseases is more predictive of mental health than ADLs scores and that depression is a dangerous risk factor for elderly people.

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    title: Growth, intergenerational welfare, and environmental policies in an overlapping generations economy abstract: This paper examines the effects of the environmental tax on long-run growth and intergenerational welfare in a discrete-time overlapping generations (OLG) model. We highlight that the role regarding how the environmental tax revenues are distributed between the young or old generations has important implications for the growth and welfare effects. Our results indicate that raising the environmental tax can exert different effects on the environmental utility of the existing young and old generations, implying an intergenerational welfare conflict of the environmental policy. However, if tax revenues are distributed appropriately, our numerical simulation shows that it is possible for a higher environmental tax to improve the welfare of all generations.

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    title: 微型保險對保險市場的衝擊 authors: 許修豪; Hsu, Hsiu-Hao
    abstract: 微型保險常被許多人稱為"金字塔底層的財富",但這些低所得消費者過去多被傳統保險市場所拒絕;保險人是否真的可以從提供服務給這群額外的消費者中獲益呢?本論文試圖藉由探討一個存在兩個保險人的完整保險市場來回答這個問題。我們由理論分析結果得知,當保險市場只有傳統保險時,在考慮垂直面的財富效果下,則均衡保費會下降、均衡利潤卻會上升。而在引進微型保險商品後,保險人的垂直需求會減少。然而,當不存在財富效果時,提供微型保險對傳統保險市場的均衡保費不會有影響,且在第二章節中,我們也得到在微型保險採取邊際成本訂價下,保險人的利潤會相同。當我們考慮財富效果後,提供微型保險會使均衡保費和利潤都降低,但傳統保險的均衡保費會因為競爭效果而隨著微型保險保費的提高而上升。最後,因為許多國家政策雖鼓勵保險人提供微型保險卻不強制性要求,而針對這樣的情況,我們也得到當保險人 1提供微型保險時:(1)保險人1傳統保險的均衡保費會比不提供微型保險時的均衡保費低。(2)保險人1的均衡保費會比保險人2的均衡保費低。(3)保險人1的均衡利潤會小於保險人2的均衡利潤。(4)保險人1的均衡利潤會隨著微型保險價格的增加而上升。最後實證對我們理論分析的結果得到一個強烈的證實:在微型保險採取邊際成本訂價時,微型保險所 帶來額外的利潤為0,那麼微型保險商品的引進會增加市場競爭的程度,同時降低均衡保費及垂直需求,因而導致保險人的利潤下降。
    description: 碩士

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