title: Inflation, Financial Development, and Economic Growth abstract: A simple endogenous growth model is developed to illustrate the important role played by inflation in determining the effects of financial development on economic growth. In the model, money is needed for loan transactions and the operations of financial markets are subject to informational imperfections. Results demonstrate that if a government's spending share is relatively large, then multiple equilibria arise under which financial development, measured by a decrease in the monitoring cost, is shown to raise inflation and reduce economic growth for countries with relatively high initial inflation rates. Only when initial inflation rates are relatively low will financial development reduce inflation and promote growth. Effects of an expansion policy in which the government raises its spending share on equilibrium inflation and economic growth are also examined.
Inflation, Financial Development, and Economic Growth
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Is the Relation between Financial Development and Economic Growth Robust? An Application of Threshold Regression Model
title: Is the Relation between Financial Development and Economic Growth Robust? An Application of Threshold Regression Model abstract: In this paper, we revise the Odedokun (1996) model, which describes that banking development has a significant impact on the economic growth. In addition to the banking development variables, we also consider the stock market variables. We distinguish such two kinds of financial development variables causing the different impact on economic growth of Taiwan. Different from previous studies, we adopt the threshold regression model and dissect the impacts of the developments of banking sector and stock market on economic growth. The empirical evidences explore that the financial development variables exist exogeneity. Taking the ratio of stock market trading as the threshold variable, we also find the threshold effect exists in the banking, stock market development and the economic growth. Thus, the financial development could promote economic growth only in the condition of lower level of financial development. But in the higher development state, the relation between the financial development and economic growth would fade away. Aside from this, we find that developed banking sector can significantly promote the economic growth when the stock market is in a lower developed state; however the relationship disappears when the stock market is highly developed. These results show that in a highly developed stock market, the impacts of banking sector and stock market on the economic growth are not compatible.
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Non-productive consumption loans and threshold effects in the inflation-growth relationship
title: Non-productive consumption loans and threshold effects in the inflation-growth relationship abstract: Recent empirical evidence indicates that two inflation thresholds exist in the inflation-growth relationship. Pre-existing theoretical models, however, fail to generate such a pattern. By adding consumption loans (which are non-productive) into a standard model of imperfect information, this paper finds that an increase in the inflation rate may increase, decrease, or have no significant effect on economic growth for inflation rates below a threshold level; however, for inflation rates higher than this threshold level, an increase in the inflation rate significantly reduces economic growth. Moreover, the marginal impact of an increase in the inflation rate in terms of reducing economic growth increases with the rise in the inflation rate, until the inflation rates reach the second threshold level, from which such a marginal effect significantly decreases. These results accord well with recent empirical evidence.
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Optimal Composition of Government Public Capital Financing
title: Optimal Composition of Government Public Capital Financing abstract: Most recent studies on growth models with public investment in infrastructure (public capital) presume that public capital is financed by income taxation. However, in the model where money is demanded for transactions, this paper finds that optimal public capital financing in general involves utilizing both income taxation and seigniorage. In such a case, the optimal income tax rate is less than the output elasticity of public capital, a reasonable result compared with empirical evidence.
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Awareness of Tobacco Tax Policy and Public Opinion on Tobacco Tax Reform in Taiwan
title: Awareness of Tobacco Tax Policy and Public Opinion on Tobacco Tax Reform in Taiwan
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Endogenous Strategic Trade Policy: The Case of the Third Market Model
title: Endogenous Strategic Trade Policy: The Case of the Third Market Model abstract: Using simple linear demand functions, we have shown that in the thircd market strategic trade policy model there cannot be Cournot-Bertrand or Bertrand-Cournot competition in equilibrium if the two firms choose strategic variables endogenously. More importantly, knowing that the firms will react to its policy in choosing their strategic variables, the government can indeed provide export subsidies to the home firm to maximize the home social welfare if some moderate, reasonable constraints are satisfied.
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An Analysis of Social Network Impacts on Chinese Labor Markets
title: An Analysis of Social Network Impacts on Chinese Labor Markets abstract: This paper uses data from the 2008 Chinese General Social Survey to empirically test the impacts of social networks on job searches and wage compensation. Our estimation results indicate that, regardless of scale or quality, social networks exert significant and positive influences on informal search channel selection. In contrast to other studies, the effect from weak ties was found to be superior to that from strong ties, but only in formal channels. Results from robustness tests with daily social network data still show a significant effect of job search network on wages. In sum, wage determination for informal channels was mostly explained by social network factors, and for formal channels by the personal trait and human capital variables. Our findings suggest that workers with low skills or low socioeconomic statuses need to expand the scales of their daily social networks to ensure better labor market performance.
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Increasing worldwide environmental consciousness and environmental policy adjustment
title: Increasing worldwide environmental consciousness and environmental policy adjustment abstract: Increasing worldwide environmental consciousness has been driving countries in the world to adjust their environmental policies. Conventional wisdom often suggests tightening environmental policy, but this paper challenges that wisdom. By using an oligopoly model, we show that, in the case of local pollution, a country that confronts increasing environmental consciousness tightens or slackens its environmental policy depending on the relative cost competitiveness to its rivals. However, in the case of global pollution, all countries in the world always tighten their environmental policies as worldwide environmental consciousness rises. These results derived from the optimal non-cooperative (Nash) equilibrium policy that maximizes own country’s welfare are valid in the case of efficient policy setting in which policy is chosen to maximize global welfare. The policy gap between these two equilibria may increase or decrease as environmental consciousness changes, relying on the relative competitiveness to firm’s rivals and on the initial level of environmental
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Reply: Does Downloading PowerPoint Slides Before the Lecture Lead to Better Student Achievement?
title: Reply: Does Downloading PowerPoint Slides Before the Lecture Lead to Better Student Achievement? abstract: This reply responds to a comment by Cannon (2011) that opens the debate on consistency of the effect of downloading PowerPoint slides before lectures on students’ exam performance. Cannon (2011) points out potential endogeneity problems in Chen and Lin (2008) and attempts to explore the unconditional mean effect of downloading PowerPoint slides for the full sample. In this reply, we firstly argue that the estimates in our original article are consistent since the effect of interest is the “conditional” treatment effect but not the unconditional mean effect. We provide explanations for our rationale of estimating the “conditional” treatment effect. Secondly, we propose a modified downloading variable to replicate Cannon’s analysis. Our results suggest that downloading PowerPoint slides before the exam does not produce a significant effect on absent students’ exam performance which is different from the results in Cannon (2011). Our analysis does support Cannon’s argument that students fixed effects are different across different attendance status.
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貿易開放對經濟成長的影響─整合分析之應用
title: 貿易開放對經濟成長的影響─整合分析之應用
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International R&D funding and patent collateral in an R&D-based growth model
title: International R&D funding and patent collateral in an R&D-based growth model abstract: This paper develops an R&D-based growth model featuring international R&D funding and patent collateral. Several main findings emerge from the analysis. First, with an inelastic labor supply, a rise in the fraction of patent collateral is beneficial to both innovations and economic growth. Second, when labor supply is inelastic, a rise in either the foreign interest rate or the fraction of borrowed R&D funding is harmful to innovations and economic growth. Third, our numerical results show that the above two findings are robust when labor is supplied elastically. Finally, our numerical results indicate that, regardless of whether labor supply is inelastic or elastic, the government can implement an optimal patent breadth policy to maximize the social welfare level. Our numerical results also point out that this optimal patent breadth will decrease in response to a reduction in the foreign interest rate, a rise in the fraction of the collateral, and a reduction in the fraction of borrowed R&D labor costs.
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Agent-based modelling as a foundation for big data
title: Agent-based modelling as a foundation for big data abstract: In this article, we propose a process-based definition of big data, as opposed to the size- and technology-based definitions. We argue that big data should be perceived as a continuous, unstructured and unprocessed dynamics of primitives, rather than as points (snapshots) or summaries (aggregates) of an underlying phenomenon. Given this, we show that big data can be generated through agent-based models but not by equationbased models. Though statistical and machine learning tools can be used to analyse big data, they do not constitute a big data-generation mechanism. Furthermore, agentbased models can aid in evaluating the quality (interpreted as information aggregation efficiency) of big data. Based on this, we argue that agent-based modelling can serve as a possible foundation for big data. We substantiate this interpretation through some pioneering studies from the 1980s on swarm intelligence and several prototypical agentbased models developed around the 2000s.
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Does Institutional Linkage of Bank-MFI Foster Inclusive Financial Development Even in the Presence of MFI Frauds?
title: Does Institutional Linkage of Bank-MFI Foster Inclusive Financial Development Even in the Presence of MFI Frauds? abstract: Growing reports indicate the presence of frauds in microfinance institutions (MFIs), as it can occur in any organization in countries where there are weak institutions, weak rule of law, and fraudulent behavior of MFI officers for personal gain. While there are increasing calls to launch financial governance of these NGO MFIs, there are concerns as to whether frauds of this nature can damage MFIs' contributions to the credit market, particularly in the bank-linkage program where the NGO MFIs act as third party intermediary. The purpose of this study was to analyze the collusion decisions faced by MFIs and their impact on the bank-linkage program, which has been offered as a solution to help overcome adverse selection and moral hazard problems in the credit market by harnessing local information via MFIs. Our results show that even when there is a chance of collusion between MFI and the borrower, the linkage between MFI and bank can still increase the probability that the borrower puts in full effort, and therefore decreases the probabilities of both credit rationing and strategic default. Such linkage in financing viable projects can make micro-financing more effective in achieving inclusive financial development and thereby poverty reduction in rural areas.
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MANAGERIAL EFFICIENCY AND TECHNOLOGY GAP RATIO FOR METROPOLITAN AND NON-METROPOLITAN HOTELS IN TAIWAN: APPLICATION OF METAFRONTIER INPUT DISTANCE FUNCTION
title: MANAGERIAL EFFICIENCY AND TECHNOLOGY GAP RATIO FOR METROPOLITAN AND NON-METROPOLITAN HOTELS IN TAIWAN: APPLICATION OF METAFRONTIER INPUT DISTANCE FUNCTION abstract: The study applies the concept of metafrontier to estimate and compare the managerial efficiencies and technology gap ratios (TGRs) for metropolitan- and non-metropolitan international tourist hotels (ITHs) in Taiwan during the year 1998-2008. The approach that metafrontier model is applied to estimate technical efficiencies for ITHs operating under different technology patterns and the technology gap ratios. Empirical results find that the non-metropolitan hotels have better operating or production efficient scores in managerial side than the metropolitan hotels. Furthermore, the estimations of metafrontier indicate that whether it is the technical efficiency of the common border or the technical gap ratio, hotels in foreign countries, chain cooperative hotels and domestic chain hotels perform better than independent hotels.
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結合變數挑選和混頻方法當下預測通膨
title: 結合變數挑選和混頻方法當下預測通膨 authors: 袁瑋成; Yuan, Wei-Cheng
abstract: 本文結合變數挑選與混頻(Mixed frequency)方法，提出兩步驟預測模型，並考慮大量且不同頻率的經濟變數當下預測美國通貨膨脹率。以美國1998年7月到2018年5月的實證結果顯示，加上變數挑選後的混頻模型，其預測表現顯著比無變數挑選的混頻模型好，且僅用少數個挑選出的變數組合預測可以更近一步改善模型的預測表現。而使用不同變數個數組合預測的混頻模型，其預測表現顯著比無混頻模型好，這表示以混頻方法將高頻率變數的資訊納入模型中確實能改善當下預測通膨的預測表現。我們亦發現僅使用少數重要的變數組合預測時，高頻率重要變數對預測表現的影響遠大於低頻率重要變數。此外，考慮不同的穩健性檢驗的結果顯示，本文所提之方法具有穩健性。
description: 碩士
abstract: 本文結合變數挑選與混頻(Mixed frequency)方法，提出兩步驟預測模型，並考慮大量且不同頻率的經濟變數當下預測美國通貨膨脹率。以美國1998年7月到2018年5月的實證結果顯示，加上變數挑選後的混頻模型，其預測表現顯著比無變數挑選的混頻模型好，且僅用少數個挑選出的變數組合預測可以更近一步改善模型的預測表現。而使用不同變數個數組合預測的混頻模型，其預測表現顯著比無混頻模型好，這表示以混頻方法將高頻率變數的資訊納入模型中確實能改善當下預測通膨的預測表現。我們亦發現僅使用少數重要的變數組合預測時，高頻率重要變數對預測表現的影響遠大於低頻率重要變數。此外，考慮不同的穩健性檢驗的結果顯示，本文所提之方法具有穩健性。
description: 碩士
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台灣實施全民基本所得之情境分析
title: 台灣實施全民基本所得之情境分析 authors: 何思賢; Ho, Si-Xian
abstract: 隨著全球科技快速的進展，人工智慧技術將會導致未來產生大量 失業人口，而貧富差距的問題也會因而隨之擴大。準此，許多學者專 家倡議全民基本所得(Universal Basic Income, 以下簡稱 UBI)，視之為 未來有效解決社會問題的可行方案。故探討台灣是否能夠實施 UBI 乃是值得深入探討的議題。 本研究旨在透過前瞻方法論之情境分析法，歸納出台灣實施 UBI 之情境。藉由 UBI 相關文獻的蒐集與彙整，從政策、經濟、社會、科 技四大面向分析影響實施 UBI 之重要因素，並依此建構專家學者問卷。 以瞭解專家學者對於台灣實施 UBI 之意見。本研究假設未來台灣實施 UBI 係透過實名制區塊鏈技術進行發放，發放額度為每個月大人 10,000 元、小孩 5,000 元。最後，依照專家填答問卷的結果歸納出台 灣未來 30 年內實施 UBI 的可能情境。 根據研究之結果顯示，「只欠東風」此一情境為台灣實施 UBI 最可能面臨的情境。其情境條件為政策改革成功、科技進展順利、尌業意 願消極，表示人工智慧技術的進展在未來 30 年會臻於成熟，促使我國政府必頇 實施 UBI，作為失業人口的救濟方案。且能順利藉由稅收制度的改革籌措發放 UBI 的資金，並進一步改善我國現行的社會福利系統。然而，發放 UBI 可能導 致民眾的尌業意願下降，造成台灣的競爭力衰退的隱憂。 本文建議政府將 UBI 的發放額度設在可以滿足民眾基本生活需求為原則， 包括大眾交通運輸、基本醫療保險及日常生活飲食等正常財。而名牌、美食、豪 宅、名車等奢侈財，仍需由民眾額外工作所賺取的收入來支付，以降低 UBI 造 成民眾尌業意願下降的可能性。此外，UBI 政策的推動步驟，宜先選擇相對貧窮 的特定地區詴辦，以瞭解名眾對於實施 UBI 的接受度，再針對 UBI 的方案內容 予以調整，最後，以推行 UBI 至全體國民為目標。
description: 碩士
abstract: 隨著全球科技快速的進展，人工智慧技術將會導致未來產生大量 失業人口，而貧富差距的問題也會因而隨之擴大。準此，許多學者專 家倡議全民基本所得(Universal Basic Income, 以下簡稱 UBI)，視之為 未來有效解決社會問題的可行方案。故探討台灣是否能夠實施 UBI 乃是值得深入探討的議題。 本研究旨在透過前瞻方法論之情境分析法，歸納出台灣實施 UBI 之情境。藉由 UBI 相關文獻的蒐集與彙整，從政策、經濟、社會、科 技四大面向分析影響實施 UBI 之重要因素，並依此建構專家學者問卷。 以瞭解專家學者對於台灣實施 UBI 之意見。本研究假設未來台灣實施 UBI 係透過實名制區塊鏈技術進行發放，發放額度為每個月大人 10,000 元、小孩 5,000 元。最後，依照專家填答問卷的結果歸納出台 灣未來 30 年內實施 UBI 的可能情境。 根據研究之結果顯示，「只欠東風」此一情境為台灣實施 UBI 最可能面臨的情境。其情境條件為政策改革成功、科技進展順利、尌業意 願消極，表示人工智慧技術的進展在未來 30 年會臻於成熟，促使我國政府必頇 實施 UBI，作為失業人口的救濟方案。且能順利藉由稅收制度的改革籌措發放 UBI 的資金，並進一步改善我國現行的社會福利系統。然而，發放 UBI 可能導 致民眾的尌業意願下降，造成台灣的競爭力衰退的隱憂。 本文建議政府將 UBI 的發放額度設在可以滿足民眾基本生活需求為原則， 包括大眾交通運輸、基本醫療保險及日常生活飲食等正常財。而名牌、美食、豪 宅、名車等奢侈財，仍需由民眾額外工作所賺取的收入來支付，以降低 UBI 造 成民眾尌業意願下降的可能性。此外，UBI 政策的推動步驟，宜先選擇相對貧窮 的特定地區詴辦，以瞭解名眾對於實施 UBI 的接受度，再針對 UBI 的方案內容 予以調整，最後，以推行 UBI 至全體國民為目標。
description: 碩士
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Consumption-Based Blockchain Accounting of Telecoupled Global Land Resource Debtors and Creditors
title: Consumption-Based Blockchain Accounting of Telecoupled Global Land Resource Debtors and Creditors
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Global Agricultural Trade Pattern in A Warming World: Regional Realities
title: Global Agricultural Trade Pattern in A Warming World: Regional Realities abstract: Global warming, coupled with disparate national population growth projections, could exert significant pressure on food prices, increasing the risk of food insecurity, particularly for net-importing countries. We investigated projected eventualities for a comprehensive set of 133 countries by the year 2030, and identified changes in the global agricultural crop trading pattern, with simulations from a multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We based our model on population growth and temperature scenarios, as per the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5). Our simulations suggest an increase of 4.9% and 6.4% in global average prices and aggregate export crop volumes, respectively. This global exports expansion requires an increased 4.46% in current global aggregate crop output, since population growth raises demand, and thus, global average crop prices, further aggravating net importing countries’ financial burdens for food acquisition. Conversely, net exporting countries will fare better in the projected scenario due to increased agricultural income, as they are able to increase crop exports to meet the rising global demand and price. The gap in global income distribution widens, given that the majority of developing countries are coincidently located in tropical zones which are projected to experience negative crop yield shocks, while industrialized countries are located in cold and temperate zones projected to have favorable crop yield changes. National and international policy measures aimed at effectively alleviating net importing countries’ food security issues should also consider how global crop yields are geographically and diversely impacted by climate change.
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Evolutionary Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Programming: A Comparative Study Based on Financial Data
title: Evolutionary Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Programming: A Comparative Study Based on Financial Data abstract: In this paper, the stock index S&P 500 is used to test the predicting performance of genetic programming (GP) and genetic programming neural networks (GPNN). While both GP and GPNN are considered universalapproximators, in this practical financial application, they perform differently. GPNN seemed to suffer the overlearning problem more seriously than GP; the latter outdid the former in all the simulations.
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以整合性科技接受模型探討行動支付之使用意願
title: 以整合性科技接受模型探討行動支付之使用意願 authors: 張勝發; Zhang, Sheng-Fa
abstract: 隨著2017年3月Apple Pay進入台灣後，台灣的行動支付生態快速發展。由於行動支付具有便利、有效率且提供消費者有別於傳統支付方式之體驗。故本研究以行動支付之使用者與潛在使用者為研究對象，主要目的在於了解此二者對於使用行動支付的意願與認知狀況。本研究藉由整合性科技接受模型探討行動支付的使用意願，並加以分析問卷資料，提出本研究之結論。本研究此次調查所得之樣本為365份，其中有效樣本為358份；藉由科技接受模型整合創新擴散理論，提出本研究之假說並運用結構方程式加以驗證。另在問卷的敘述性統計中，觀察本次問卷調查之行動支付平台曾經被受訪者使用(可複選)之比率為：Line Pay 61.2%，Apple Pay33.5%，街口支付59.8%。 研究結果顯示：「知覺有用性」、「使用態度」對使用意願有正向直接之影響。而「知覺易用性」、「使用成本忍受度」、「可視性」「知覺便利性」對使用意願則有正向間接之影響。最後，在研究結果提出對於行動支付業者推動行動支付之參考建議。
description: 碩士
abstract: 隨著2017年3月Apple Pay進入台灣後，台灣的行動支付生態快速發展。由於行動支付具有便利、有效率且提供消費者有別於傳統支付方式之體驗。故本研究以行動支付之使用者與潛在使用者為研究對象，主要目的在於了解此二者對於使用行動支付的意願與認知狀況。本研究藉由整合性科技接受模型探討行動支付的使用意願，並加以分析問卷資料，提出本研究之結論。本研究此次調查所得之樣本為365份，其中有效樣本為358份；藉由科技接受模型整合創新擴散理論，提出本研究之假說並運用結構方程式加以驗證。另在問卷的敘述性統計中，觀察本次問卷調查之行動支付平台曾經被受訪者使用(可複選)之比率為：Line Pay 61.2%，Apple Pay33.5%，街口支付59.8%。 研究結果顯示：「知覺有用性」、「使用態度」對使用意願有正向直接之影響。而「知覺易用性」、「使用成本忍受度」、「可視性」「知覺便利性」對使用意願則有正向間接之影響。最後，在研究結果提出對於行動支付業者推動行動支付之參考建議。
description: 碩士
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