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總體經濟政策與就業效果 : 在不同滙率制度下的比較

October 26, 2017, 2:21 am
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title: 總體經濟政策與就業效果 : 在不同滙率制度下的比較 authors: 洪有忠
abstract: 二次世界大戰後，國際貨幣基金會基於傳統理論，認為貶值會使就業效果增加並改善國際收支，而允許各國當發生「基本不均衡」時，可以調整其基金平價。 本文建立嚴謹的兩國模型，同時引進Laursen-Metzler效果與貨幣學派所主張滙率變動的銀根緊縮效果，來探討在不同滙率體系下，財政政策，貨幣政策與商業性政策之有效性，浮動滙率是否能隔絕國外干擾及貨幣政策是否具有自主性等國際金融問題，並與傳統理論作一比較分析。本文除了用比較靜態分析外，為了使解說更清楚明瞭起見，我們還配合圖形加以說明。 經由慎密的研討，吾人發現本文的結論涵著了傳統的看法，一般傳統學者的見解皆可由本文模型化解得之。當我們考慮滙率變動後所引發的銀根緊縮效果與 Laursen-Metzler 效果後，財金政策的有效性不再是浮動滙率體系大於固定滙率體系，浮動滙率亦無能完全隔絕來自國外的波及，傳統的結論有了重大的修正。 事實上，基於本文的假設所求得的結果，是否符合實際的經濟情勢，有待進一步的研究。
description: 國立政治大學
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漁船保險契約之比較研究

October 26, 2017, 2:31 am
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title: 漁船保險契約之比較研究 authors: 張慧玲
abstract: 居島國地位之台灣，海洋環境優越，各種漁業資源相當豐富，故發展漁業遂成為政府現階段重要經濟政策之一。發展漁業固須多方配合，惟其中就漁業者主要生產工具 - 漁船之安全保障，更屬漁民迫切所需要，故漁船保險即應運而生。 理論上，漁船保險為海上保險中船舶保險之一部分，然因漁船具有其特殊性，故在制度上有將「船舶保險」與「漁船保險」予以劃分者，我國亦同；惟實際上，我國漁船保險最初階段（光復至民國四十五年間）均採用英國船舶保單，其後雖有中文保單之制訂，其內容仍不出於船舶英文保單之輪廓，其精神與船舶保單亦無殊異。因此，欲探討我國漁船保險之內容，研析船舶保單亦不可或缺。 又漁船保險影響漁業界最大者，首推漁船保險契約之內容。保險契約在性質上乃為保險人一方所制訂之「定型化契約」，其特徵在於漁業者只有訂約與否之自由，而無決定契約內容之自由，就當事人地位而言，已呈不平衡之現象，故該契約內容之客觀性、公平性更顯示其重要性。 本文主要即就漁船保險契約之本質與內容加以分析，並參酌英國船舶保險契約之主要附加條款內容，以作為瞭解我國漁船保單之基礎；此外，亦略述我國及日本漁船保險合作社之組織與其規定，以為進一步改進、建議之參考。內容共分六章，主要內容如下： 第一章緒論：本章共分三節，首就漁船保險之意義、特性、發展背景及現存問題，予以一一闡明。 第二章船舶及漁船保險契約之本質：本章共分五節，旨就船舶及漁船保險契約之法律意義、基本要素及種類加以分述；並論及英國海上保險法與慣例在我國之法源地位。 第三章漁船保險契約內容之分析：本章共分八節，亦為本篇論文重心所在，分別就現行漁船保險契約有關之保險價額與保險金額、保險期間、轉讓、保險費、特約條款、承保損失、除外條款及漁船其他保險予以分析、比較並評論之。 第四章英國協會船舶保險主要附加條款之簡介：本章共分五節，旨在分析國際上常採用之英國倫敦保險人協會所制訂之主要船舶保單附加條款及漁船保單條款，藉以瞭解船舶及漁船保險之全貌。 第五章漁船保險合作社及其規定：本章分二節，係針對我國現階段實驗性之「有限責任台灣省漁船產物保險合作社」以及日本漁船保險合作社之組織與基本規定，予以介紹比較。 第六章綜合及建議 - 代結論：本文之最後，乃綜合前文所提及之漁船保險契約及制度之現存問題，並擬改進之建議，期盼我國漁船保險契約能更加周延且完備，漁船保險制度能更加健全且完善，漁船保險臻於穩定且步上坦途。 本論文得以完成，誠摯感謝指導教授袁宗蔚老師不辭辛勞，逐字指正，同時亦感謝各保險公司、產險公會、財政部諸位先生惠賜資料、指點迷津，以及育山弟之校對。此外，父母的劬勞、公婆的鼓勵、好友的關懷都是我所感懷的，至於自始至終為我精神支柱之外子，則一切均在不言中，總之，建築在一個幸福家庭中的所有關愛是支持我的原動力。 筆者才疏學淺，謬誤之處在所難免，尚祈師長、保險先進不吝指教，更願將此一論文做為我研究學問的另一個始點，則甚幸焉！
description: 國立政治大學
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Dysgenic fertility for intelligence and education in Taiwan

November 21, 2017, 1:50 am
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title: Dysgenic fertility for intelligence and education in Taiwan abstract: This study investigated the current trend of dysgenic fertility in Taiwan. Data on 680 adults aged 35 to 90 years from the Taiwan WAIS-IV norming sample and 980 children aged 2.5 to 7 years from the Taiwan WPPSI-IV norming sample were examined to investigate the relationships between intelligence, education, and fertility. Results revealed that education and intelligence were negatively correlated with fertility, and that the correlations were stronger for females. The genotypic intelligence is estimated to decline by approximately 1.19 IQ points per generation and the decline is much stronger for the younger adult cohort (1.46 IQ points) than for the older adult cohort (1.02 IQ points).
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Internal imbalances in the monetary union with asymmetric openness

November 22, 2017, 12:03 am
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title: Internal imbalances in the monetary union with asymmetric openness abstract: This paper develops a two-country, two-sector model under both monetary union and flexible exchange rate regimes featured with trade openness differentials, and then uses it to examine the relative macroeconomic effects of trade openness under both regimes. Some main results emerge from our analysis regarding an adverse shock of either country-wide productivity or country-wide government expenditure. First, the decline in output is greater for a country with low openness under both regimes. Second, the monetary union will result in a greater decline in output if the monetary authority attaches a higher weight to output stabilization. Third, the high elasticity of substitution results in a greater difference in output between the two regimes.
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Misallocations and policy constraints on mergers in the modern manufacturing sector

November 22, 2017, 12:03 am
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title: Misallocations and policy constraints on mergers in the modern manufacturing sector abstract: Resource misallocation has resulted in differences in inter-economy total factor productivity (TFP). However, the factors driving different levels of resource misallocation still need to be investigated. This paper argues that firm exits through mergers can be an important source of change in the level of resource misallocation. Traditional policy regulations for the key manufacturing sectors are based on either the four-firm concentration ratio (CR4) or the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), which measure the market concentration. This paper takes a different approach. It first deduces the optimal input allocation by measuring aggregate resource misallocation; this approach allows us to identify productivity-improving merger events and complements the market concentration indexes, which have traditionally been the focus of attention. We then construct a unique dataset in the TFT-LCD industry to analyze the change in productivity resulting from the merger between two major TFT-LCD producers, Chimei and Innolux, in the first quarter of 2010. The proposed and actual team of Chimei and Innolux record a remarkable efficiency jump by achieving optimal input allocation immediately after this merger. We further interpret this scenario as a firm that is smaller and more efficient pre-merger, acquiring a larger weaker producer in a prominent IT manufacturing sector
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On the employment, investment and current account effects of inflation: A revisit

November 23, 2017, 12:56 am
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title: On the employment, investment and current account effects of inflation: A revisit abstract: This paper supplements the studies of Mansoorian and Mohsin (2004, 2006) on the macro effects of a temporary policy of inflation targeting by shedding light on two neglected scenarios. These scenarios are not only empirically plausible, but also give rise to rather different policy implications. First, we show that if consumption and leisure are substitutes and their substitutability is relatively large, a temporary rise in inflation can raise, rather than lower, the shadow value of assets. This effect stemming from the rise in the shadow price of assets plays a crucial, but opposite, role vis-à-vis the direct effect of inflation. The induced effect of the shadow price is long-lasting persistence and has a permanent consequence, even though the policy is temporary. As a result, in the steady state, employment, capital, and output increase, rather than decrease, in response to a temporary increase in inflation. Second, if consumption and leisure are complements, we find that in response to a temporary decrease in inflation, employment, capital and output suffer short-run costs in the transition, but reap long-run benefits in the steady state. This transitional result is in accordance with the Canadian responses.
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動態隨機一般均衡模型於中國經濟之非傳統貨幣政策之探討

December 5, 2017, 12:36 am
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title: 動態隨機一般均衡模型於中國經濟之非傳統貨幣政策之探討 abstract: 在此研究中，我們建構一個包含金融部門的小型開放動態隨機一般均衡(DSGE)模型，並納入符合中國大陸現況的國內金融體系管制以及國際資本市場管制，以對中國大陸貨幣政策改革進行福利分析。中國大陸貨幣政策刻正進行改革，逐步解除國內金融市場以及國際資本市場的管制，此將使貨幣政策以及外在衝擊的傳導機制改變，透過 DSGE 模型進行福利分析，將有助於我們了解相關改革措施對於總體經濟以及福利水準的影響。研究結果顯示，相較於國內金融體系管制的解除，開放資本帳的影響將更為顯著。也因此，本研究建議，在貨幣政策的改革中，資本帳的開放當應更為審慎。
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Estimating GDP and foreign rents of the oil and gas sector in the USSR then and Russia now

January 8, 2018, 1:14 am
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title: Estimating GDP and foreign rents of the oil and gas sector in the USSR then and Russia now abstract: A Soviet legacy for present-day Russia is found in its resource dependency as well as its implicit exposition of resource rents from foreign trade in the national accounting. Estimating rents from the foreign trade of oil and gas, we demonstrate how large the GDP of the oil and gas sector had been in the Soviet Union and has been in present-day Russia, as well.
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Calculating Value-at-Risk Using the Granularity Adjustment Method in the Portfolio Credit Risk Model with Random Loss Given Default

January 8, 2018, 1:14 am
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title: Calculating Value-at-Risk Using the Granularity Adjustment Method in the Portfolio Credit Risk Model with Random Loss Given Default abstract: According to the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS), the internal ratings-based approach of Basel II and Basel III allows a bank to calculate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) for portfolio credit risk by using its own credit risk model. In this paper we use the Granularity Adjustment (GA) method proposed by Martin and Wilde (2002) to calculate VaR in the portfolio credit risk model with random loss given default. Moreover, we utilize a Monte Carlo simulation to study the impact of concentration risk on VaR.
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A Weibull Analysis of the Current Job Tenure in Taiwan with Both Accelerated Failure-Time and Proportional Hazards Metrics = 臺灣現職工作期間之存續分析--兼具加速失敗時間與比例風險計量的Weibull 分析

January 8, 2018, 1:15 am
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title: A Weibull Analysis of the Current Job Tenure in Taiwan with Both Accelerated Failure-Time and Proportional Hazards Metrics = 臺灣現職工作期間之存續分析--兼具加速失敗時間與比例風險計量的Weibull 分析 abstract: Relationships between current job tenure, which refers to the length of time in the current role at a specific firm, and firm-specific human capital and their determinants are examined theoretically. The approach of estimation for the survival model is explored by associating Weibull's parametric log-linear duration model with the extreme-value type-I (min.) distribution and the accelerated life model, as well as both proportional and relative hazards as embedded in Cox's proportional hazards model. By fitting the survival model to household data from the May 2012 Manpower Utilization Survey of Taiwan, the estimation results can be briefly summarized as follows: (1) Of all the covariates, formal schooling level imposes the greatest positive effect on the time length of current job tenure and hence has the greatest mitigating effect on the risk that the current job tenure fails (terminates); conversely, atypical employment imposes the largest negative effect on the time length of current job tenure and hence has the largest increasing effect on the failure risk of current job tenure. (2) The current job tenure of the reference subject fails around 8 times earlier (or ages around 8 times faster) than that of the subject with covariates. More interestingly, this implies that the risk that the current job tenure of the subject fails at a given survival time equals only around an eighth the risk that the current job tenure of the reference subject fails at about an eighth times earlier than the given survival time. (3) Estimation results from Weibull do have implications similar to results from both the accelerated failure-time and proportional hazards metrics.
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The Benefit of Providing Face-to-Face Lectures in Online Learning Microeconomics Courses: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design Experiment

January 8, 2018, 1:15 am
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title: The Benefit of Providing Face-to-Face Lectures in Online Learning Microeconomics Courses: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design Experiment abstract: This paper explores the effect of attending face-to-face lectures on examination performance in online Intermediate Microeconomics courses using a regression discontinuity experimental approach. The instructor implemented a policy requiring students who scored below the class mean on the first exam to attend four face-to-face lectures before the second exam. The estimation results show that, on the average, attending face-to-face lectures does not improve online learning students' examination performance. However, for the group of students who did not or chose not to access online course materials, attending face-to-face lectures did produce a significant and positive effect on their grades. As revealed from this study, offering face-to-face lecture options to online learning students requires more resources but does not significantly improve students' examination performance. In order to enhance students learning particular for low performing students, a cost effective policy option might not be requiring students to attend face-to- face lectures but discovering ways to encourage or require students accessing pre-recorded lectures.
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Cognitive ability and earnings performance: Evidence from double auction market experiments

January 29, 2018, 11:18 pm
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title: Cognitive ability and earnings performance: Evidence from double auction market experiments abstract: Our goal in this paper is to understand how heterogeneity in people’s cognitive ability leads to different market behavior, and thus different market performance. To do this, subjects with heterogeneous working memory capacity (WMC) were placed in a double-auction environment to compete against artificial traders. We considered two treatments which differ in the artificial traders. The artificial traders are truth-telling in the first treatment, but demonstrate adaptive trading behavior in the second one. Our results show that working memory capacity has a significantly positive effect on subjects’ market performance, and the performance gap caused by cognitive ability, while narrowing over time, remains significant by the end of experiment. We find that differences in subjects’ performance resulted from their behavior: high-WMC subjects were better at exploiting extra profit opportunities and avoiding unprofitable transactions, and they tended to underbid more than those with lower WMC. Among the five constituent abilities of WMC, we find that it is distinctive abilities which contribute to the overall significance in these two treatments. For the treatment involving truth-telling traders, the relevant factor is the ability of simultaneous processing and storing information; whereas, for the treatment involving adaptive traders, the only one that matters is subjects’ ability to coordinate elements into structures.
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Google搜尋趨勢與認知金融：從臺灣股票市場學到的新知

February 1, 2018, 7:35 pm
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title: Google搜尋趨勢與認知金融：從臺灣股票市場學到的新知 authors: 沈佩璇; Shen, Pei Hsuan
abstract:
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多重市場競爭與價格離散之關聯 : 以美國境內航空市場為例

February 1, 2018, 7:37 pm
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title: 多重市場競爭與價格離散之關聯 : 以美國境內航空市場為例 authors: 劉亭彣; Liou, Ting-Wun
abstract: 本文以美國境內航空市場為例，探討多重市場接觸與價格離散的關聯，並研究大型航空公司併購案前後多重市場接觸對航空公司競爭策略的影響。本研究發現：(一) 相互容忍說於併購案發生前後皆成立。(二) 相較於考量擴大市場的市佔率，航空公司更應該關注與競爭者間的競爭關係。(三) 併購案發生前後，航空公司的訂價行為都深受競爭對手的競爭策略影響。(四) 併購案發生前，因競爭者多，市場上航空公司平均市佔率的大小是航空公司可採取競爭手段重要因素之一。在最大的1000 個市場中，雖然每家航空公司的市場力量不大，航空公司仍可採取價格競爭，然若是對手間聯合懲罰，則航空公司不敢採取激進手段，且多重市場接觸越多，價格離散程度越大。而在次要競爭的市場中，則因航空公司的平均市占率是最大的1000 個市場的兩倍，因此航空公司並未有明顯競爭行為。但若考量競爭對手間的碰面次數，則多重市場接觸與不同分位價格關係為正，且多重市場接觸越多，價格離散程度越低。併購案發生後，因航空公司間彼此箝制力量大，與競爭對手間的碰面次數越多，越傾向隱性勾結，且高價位的價格上升較低價位價格多，使價格離散程度越大。
description: 碩士
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線上旅遊資訊對於台灣旅遊景點及旅客的影響

March 1, 2018, 7:55 pm
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title: 線上旅遊資訊對於台灣旅遊景點及旅客的影響 authors: 李羽嵐; Lee, Yu Lan
abstract: 網路盛行下，取得資訊的成本大幅降低，人們在旅遊決策前會先使用網路查詢相關的資訊，本研究目的在於探討線上的旅遊景點資訊搜尋對於景點以及對於到訪該景點之旅客有什麼樣的影響，利用景點的Google搜尋熱度、景點的燈光資料及景點旅客人數的資料，使用固定效果模型分析，證實景點的線上的旅遊景點資訊會使其景點變得熱鬧，尤其會影響到秘境、高學歷旅客及年輕人喜歡前往的景點。 另外本研究也發現，線上搜尋會使得旅客想要找旅伴一同出遊，且會使去其景點的遊客平均年齡降低，以及使遊客去其景點採取自由行的比例上升，讓旅客的旅遊模式變得多元化。
description: 碩士
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建構社會價值創造模型─以台灣上市公司為例

March 1, 2018, 7:55 pm
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title: 建構社會價值創造模型─以台灣上市公司為例 authors: 吳浩銓; Wu, Hao Chuan
abstract: 近期關於組織目標的研究指出，傳統以營利為目的的公司，隨著政府與大眾對於社會議題的日益關注而開始履行企業社會責任；另一方面，傳統以解決社會問題為目的的非營利組織，為了處理資金問題而開始從事營利行為。因為營利與非營利組織的分界開始模糊，各種混合型態的組織跟著出現，構成了一個組織目標的光譜。然而，這個概念上的目標光譜並不容易呈現，目前針對社會價值的創造(Social Value Creation，簡稱SVC)在量化上的分析成果亦有限。本研究從產業經濟學的混合寡占理論出發，提出一個「SVC投資市場」以衡量組織對於社會價值的重視程度，並使用觀察到的資料描繪出SVC投資市場中的需求。再透過組織目標函數的設定以及在市場中競爭的結果，推估組織考量社會價值的比重，找出組織在目標光譜中的位置。本研究針對台灣上市公司的企業社會責任報告書資料以及財報資料進行分析後發現，目前台灣上市公司的消費者並不太重視公司的SVC活動。政府若欲提升公司對於SVC的重視程度，可以嘗試藉由改變消費者的購買決策來影響公司的目標決策。
description: 碩士
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影響上市櫃公司遵守身心障礙定額進用政策之因素

March 1, 2018, 7:56 pm
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title: 影響上市櫃公司遵守身心障礙定額進用政策之因素 authors: 李宜家; Lee, Yi-Chia
abstract: 自1990年《身心障礙者權益保障法》修法以來，臺灣已實施強制的身心障礙者定額進用制度近30年，然而身心障礙者就業及薪資水準仍處於相對弱勢。此外，臺灣過去文獻多採用問卷或小樣本訪談資料，且鮮少以經濟分析方式實證定額進用制度。本研究以橫斷面資料，探討上市櫃公司對於身心障礙者定額進用制度的決策。根據Probit迴歸模型，得到三項重要結果：(一)公司每人營收及市值與違法機率呈顯著正向關係；(二)上市櫃公司成立時間則與違法機率呈負相關；(三)電子通路業較無法配合定額進用政策。
description: 碩士
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J曲線效果、金融交易稅與匯率波動性

March 1, 2018, 7:56 pm
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title: J曲線效果、金融交易稅與匯率波動性 authors: 李睿緯; Li, Ruei Wei
abstract: 本文以朱美麗與馮立功 (2015)為基礎，在考慮Gupta-Kapoor and Ramakrishnan (1999)等實證文獻認為的部分國家經常帳，在某些時期存在J曲線效果的情形下，將J曲線效果引進朱美麗與馮立功 (2015)的模型，建構一個存在J曲線效果、含有套匯與套利理性投機交易的外匯市場模型，分析面對外匯市場不同來源的未預料衝擊，若政策當局實施金融交易稅，是否能減緩匯率的波動性。 本文發現有J曲線效果存在時：(1)當衝擊來源為經常帳時，金融交易稅會加劇匯率波動性，不建議課稅；(2)當發生金融帳利差衝擊時，金融交易稅在某些情況下有助於減少匯率波動性，因此可以課稅；(3)當兩衝擊同時發生時，金融帳利差衝擊占比必須較大，課稅才有可能降低匯率波動性；(4)除衝擊來源外，J曲線效果的強弱與課稅幅度亦會影響金融交易稅的效果。 在數值模擬分析中得出，當其他的經濟結構參數值不變，J曲線效果較強時，可能可以透過課稅降低匯率波動性。而可以課稅的情況時，在一定範圍內，稅率越高，課稅穩定市場的效果越好，但若稅率超出範圍，則可能導致外匯市場不具安定性，故不能課太高的稅。
description: 碩士
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An Analysis of the Form of Local Externality

March 28, 2018, 2:27 am
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title: An Analysis of the Form of Local Externality abstract: Eeckhout (2004)的一般均衡理論可解釋吉伯特定理中的都市成長過程與分佈。該文對於模型中的主要驅動力之一的地方外部性，並無進一步探討。本研究的目的是分析地方外部性形式特質與都市成長過程及人口分佈的關係。本研究對模型中之地方外部性進行延伸分析，發現當地方外部性中的產出都市人口彈性固定時，一般均衡理論中的隨機生產過程可推導出比例成長的都市人口；同時，都市人口的上尾端分布會趨近於普瑞夫定理．此結果在Eeckhout (2004)中未提出。此外，地方外部性中的擁塞成本越大，估計的吉尼係數越小，都市間人口差異越小。該理論隱含當產出都市人口彈性為負時，技術衝擊越大都市規模越大；當擁擠成本主導淨地方外部性時，技術衝擊越大都市規模越大。
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財政整頓的不對稱效果 - 追蹤資料分量迴歸之應用

April 9, 2018, 1:03 am
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title: 財政整頓的不對稱效果 - 追蹤資料分量迴歸之應用 authors: 陳彥凱; Chen, Yen-Kai
abstract: 全球金融危機之後，在許多國家嚴重赤字之下，各界皆相當關心財政整頓效果。本文參考 Lin(2016) 的三階段方法估計動態追蹤資料分量迴歸，並使用敘事法 (narrative approach) 所建構的財政整頓衝擊變數，分析 17 個 OECD 國家 1978-2007 年跨國追蹤資料，探討財政整頓對經濟成長的影響效果。實證結果顯示財政整頓對經濟成長為負向影響，實施財政整頓會抑制產出，對一國經濟造成損害，且在經濟情勢不佳時，該負向效果更明顯。
description: 碩士
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